So, you wanna know how rare that really cool and expensive card you just pulled actually is? Or are you here to find out what the rarest card is?

Either way, this guide goes over the probabilities for each card rarity and the steps the game takes to generate the cards!

(Quick Note: when I say "rarity" I mean the border type. In the code, "rarity" refers to what card pack the card came from, eg Common, Rare, Epic, Legendary. Rarity is more fun to say than "border type" in my opinion.)

Here are the exact probabilities that the code gives for each rarity.

Full Art: 1/400 (0.25%)
EX: 1/100 (1%)
Gold: 1/25 (4%)
Silver: 1/12.5 (8%)
First Edition: 1/5 (20%)

Any Foil: 1/20 (5%)

(For each rarity, getting a foil is a 1/20 on top of it. For example, a Full Art Foil is a 1/400 to get a
Full Art and then a 1/20 for that Full Art to be a Foil, giving a 1/8,000 or 0.0125% chance)

The moment you open a pack, the game will randomly generate 7 cards. Each card goes through the following process:
1) Generate a random number between 0 and 10,000.
2) Check if the number is lower than the set probability value for that rarity multiplied by 100. (There is a set value for each rarity, basically the chance out of 100)
3) Repeat once for each rarity.

The first check is always to see if the card will be Foil (1/20).
From there, it'll check for the rarity. It'll check down from Full Art to First Edition. If it succeeds any, it will skip all other checks. If none succeed, it'll default to a Base Card.

The type of card pack does not affect the chances of each rarity. You get the same probability for Common Packs as you do Legendary Packs as you do any Destiny Packs (with the exception of Ghost Packs).

Another thing, there's no sign of any difference between Individual Card Packs and Box Card Packs (Cards from a Box Pack). All packs go through the same code to generate the 7 random cards and rarities.

If you have any study in probability and statistics, you might notice that with the method of checking each card rarity as stated above, it does depend on the previous result. If the code decided your card is a gold card, it will never try for a silver. So therefore, to get the more common card rarities, it will need to fail each other check before hand.

So after crunching the numbers, the following table shows roughly how many different card rarities you'll get on average out of 10,000 cards and their respective percentage (both rounded to 2 decimal places) and sorted from rarest to most common:


Note: this does not take into account ghosts cards or god packs as they are dependent on packs and not individual cards. They wouldn't change the values much anyways.

For those who don't know, there's a rare set of cards called Ghost Cards.

Each pack that you open has a random chance of being a Ghost Pack.

If you're opening a Tetramon pack, it's a 1/1,000 chance (0.1%) for it to be a Ghost Pack.
If you're opening a Destiny pack, it's a 1/500 chance (0.2%) for it to be a Ghost Pack.

If the check succeeds, the last card in a Ghost Pack will be a guaranteed Ghost Card.

There's a 50/50 for it to have a White or Black background and still a 1/20 for it to be a foil.
(A total of 1/20,000 (0.005%) chance for a Foil Ghost Card from a Tetramon Pack or a 1/10,000 (0.01%) from a Destiny Pack).

Note: all Ghost Cards are Legendary Full Art cards.

Credit to Hollowman for bringing this up. I completely missed it in the patch notes, only focusing on the graded cards.

Who doesn't love a god pack? Getting all foiled cards is something that will keep card collectors going. So let's have a look into how often these will pop up for you!

As soon as you open a pack, the game will generate a random number (shocking, I know..) which is called the God Pack Roll Index. This number dictates the minimum card rarity you'll get from a pack. In short, a God Pack does not always get you all foiled full arts but what the lowest rarity any card in the pack goes to.

When the God Pack Roll Index is generated, it'll roll a number between 1 and 100,000. If this value falls between a chosen range, you'll get a god pack. Here's the distribution:


It's important to note that whatever you roll here will be the guaranteed minimum, which means:

• You can still get foils and gold cards if you manage a 1st edition God Pack.
  
• You won't ever get a non-foil card from any foil God Pack.
  
• A Ghost God Pack roll will only guarantee a ghost card while everything else is normal odds, but the Foil Ghost God Pack roll will have every card foiled.
  
• You can still get a Ghost Pack even if you god rolled anything not guaranteeing a ghost card.
  
• If you happen to get a Ghost Pack and any foiled God Pack, the ghost card will be foil too.

Did you know that the xp you gain from opening packs all depends on what rarity of cards you get? Well, here's the xp you get per rarity of cards:


(Credit to user EndOfFile for compiling this list!

As of now, there's no easy way to see how many card packs you've opened.
The best way I've found is by using a site called saveeditonline[www.saveeditonline.com].

1. Open saveeditonline[www.saveeditonline.com].
2. Locate your save file: C:\Users\%userprofile%\AppData\LocalLow\OPNeonGames\Card Shop Simulator\savedGames_Release1.gd. (The 1 is the save file, you'll also have 2 or 3 if you've saved into them)
3. Drag and drop or open in browser the save file. The website may say you can't open them but you definitely can.
4. Search for: m_GameReportDataCollectPermanent > cardPackOpened
5. The number next to it is how many packs you've opened!

I'm hoping OPNeon will add in a stats page in the future.

As of update 0.50, Customers can now sell or trade you cards! What type of card they sell or trade is dependent on your store level, meaning you can't get destiny cards without having unlocked destiny packs and ghost cards will show up more frequently when you are a higher level. That being said, here's the values:


The card that is chosen by the customer has an even chance to be any border including foil. So a 1/12 for a base all the way up to a 1/12 for a full art foil. Only exception are ghost cards which I have listed above the rarity for a foiled ghost per pack unlocked.The grade for any graded cards are uniformly random from grade 1-10 (all evenly likely).

Since v0.60, we've had the ability to grade cards! (WOOOOOOOOO)

Let's go over the chances of getting that sweet sweet grade 10 card!
On the very day you receive your cards back from the grader, the game will determine each of the cards' grades separately. It's important to note that each service does not affect the grading. You won't get better grades using the faster service.

The way the grades are determined is similar to how the Card Rarity works, in that it'll go from best to worst and keeping the best result. The chances are as follows:
Just to break this down, it'll first check if the grade will be good or bad (96% chance to be good). It'll then check a 40% chance for a grade 10, then a 50% chance for grade 9, and so on. This does mean that the grades are a dependent probability, so here are the real numbers that you should expect to get for every card you sent to be graded:
Not many people actually know this but you can in fact sent your graded cards back to get regraded! It is pretty risky though as you only have a 30% chance for the card to increase by a single grade. Otherwise, you have a 29% chance of the card to decrease a single grade, with the remaining 41% keeping the grade the exact same. Are you sure you wanna try to make those grade 9's into some grade 10's? I wish you the best of luck attempting!
(Thank you raistlin212 for pointing out my error. I totally misread the logic of code.)

This info is subject to change by the Developer.
If you see a mistake, let me know. This is from what I've concluded from looking at the code.
I will not be revealing how I looked into the code.

I hope this guide helps you understand what is going on behind the scenes a bit more!

Big shoutout to Keldor for quoting this guide to others whenever they ask about the probabilities!
And to everyone who has given me awards! You are all so very kind and I hope each and every one of you get many Ghost Foils!